Forecasting the Price Trends in Major Rapeseed & Mustard (R&M) Markets of Assam

Year: 2025 | Month: March | Volume 12 | Issue 1

Forecasting the Price Trends in Major Rapeseed & Mustard (R&M) Markets of Assam

Dipjyoti Bharali Anup Kumar Das Nivedita Deka
DOI:10.30954/2394-8159.01.2025.2

Abstract :

Rapeseed & Mustard (R&M) holds a crucial position in India’s oilseeds industry, with India being the largest

producer by area and the third largest in production globally. The “Yellow Revolution” of the early 1990s briefly

achieved self-sufficiency in oilseeds, but this was not sustained, leading to increased dependence on vegetable oil imports. In India, R&M oil constitutes about two-thirds of the country’s edible oil consumption, predominantly in the kacchi-ghani form. Approximately 90% of the domestic Rapeseed & Mustard production is crushed for oil, primarily consumed in northern, northeastern and central India. Assam, a major R&M-producing state, faces significant productivity challenges due to various agronomic and infrastructural constraints, including reliance on traditional varieties, lack of irrigation and delayed sowing. To support mustard farmers, the Assam Government announced an MSP of ` 5,950 per quintal for the 2025-26 marketing season, with procurement facilitated through

existing paddy centres and NAFED. This study employs ARIMA modelling in R-Software to forecast mustard

prices, analyzing 10 to 17 years of time series wholesale price data from AGMARKNET and AMIU-AAU portals

for four major mustard markets of Assam in Barpeta, Dhubri and Darrang districts.

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Year: 2025 | Month: March | Volume 12 | Issue 1

Forecasting the Price Trends in Major Rapeseed & Mustard (R&M) Markets of Assam

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